Live Stream Details for Astros vs Athletics – Thursday, September 25, 2025

Houston Astros

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Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Houston Astros on September 25, 2025, the stakes are palpable. The Athletics, currently sitting at 75-83, have had a disappointing season, while the Astros are in much better shape at 84-74. This matchup marks the third game of the series, and both teams are looking to solidify their positions as the season winds down.

In their last game, the Athletics fell short against the Astros, who are riding high on their recent success. On the mound, Oakland will send J.T. Ginn, a right-handed pitcher who has had an average season with a 4.57 ERA. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for better results, as his 3.41 xFIP indicates some bad luck. Ginn projects to pitch around 5.4 innings while allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.1 hits and 1.5 walks per game could be problematic against a potent lineup.

Framber Valdez, the Astros’ ace and a left-handed pitcher, will be countering Ginn. Valdez has been impressive this season with a 3.75 ERA and ranks as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB. He is projected to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, making him a tough opponent for the Athletics.

The Athletics’ offense ranks as the 7th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, particularly with their 216 home runs this season. However, their struggles on the base paths, ranking 26th in stolen bases, could hinder their chances for aggressive play. In contrast, the Astros’ offense has been average, ranking 14th overall, but they have shown the capability to capitalize on mistakes.

With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, with Oakland’s moneyline at +100 and Houston’s at -120. The Athletics’ high implied total of 4.64 runs suggests they could put up a fight, especially at home. However, Valdez’s ability to induce ground balls against a power-hitting team like the Athletics may give the Astros the edge they need to secure another win.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Framber Valdez is an extreme groundball pitcher (58.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Sutter Health Park — the #10 HR venue in the majors — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jesus Sanchez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 96.6-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Given the 1.12 disparity between J.T. Ginn’s 9.87 K/9 and his 8.74 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year in terms of strikeouts and figures to see worse results the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Extreme groundball bats like Brent Rooker generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Tyler Soderstrom has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-160)
  The Athletics have hit the Run Line in 45 of their last 72 games (+14.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 84 of their last 144 games (+16.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 71% ROI)