Discover the Best Player Props for Pirates vs Reds – 9/25/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Cincinnati Reds

On September 25, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park for the third game of their series. Both teams are out of contention for their division, but this matchup is crucial as the Reds aim to finish the season strong. Cincinnati enters the game with an 80-78 record, while Pittsburgh sits at 69-89. In their last encounter, Cincinnati emerged victorious, continuing their push to end on a high note.

Cincinnati’s projected starter, Nick Lodolo, has had a decent season, holding an 8-8 record with a solid 3.44 ERA. Ranked as the 44th best starting pitcher in MLB, Lodolo is expected to deliver an average outing, projecting 5.4 innings and allowing around 2.5 earned runs. However, his high average of 5.0 hits allowed and 1.5 walks may raise concerns. The Reds’ offensive unit, while ranking 19th overall, has been bolstered recently by their best hitter, who boasts a 0.417 batting average and 1.462 OPS over the last week.

Conversely, the Pirates will counter with Braxton Ashcraft, who has a 4-3 record and an impressive 2.62 ERA. Despite his effective performance, Ashcraft’s expected innings of 4.3 are below average, and he has struggled with allowing 4.4 hits and 1.5 walks per game. Pittsburgh’s offense is struggling, ranking dead last in MLB, which could be an uphill battle against a Reds team looking to capitalize on any mistakes.

With the Reds positioned as betting favorites and an implied team total of 4.44 runs, they hold a distinct advantage. As they strive for a strong finish to the season, Cincinnati’s pitching and improved offensive play could prove too much for the Pirates’ struggling lineup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Braxton Ashcraft has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -17.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (16.6) suggests that Joey Bart has experienced some negative variance this year with his 7.5 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cam Devanney, Rafael Flores, Alexander Canario, Joey Bart).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Nick Lodolo’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (50.5% compared to 43.7% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Matt McLain is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati Reds hitters as a group place 28th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 7.3% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 147 games (+26.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 90 of their last 150 games (+23.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Nick Lodolo has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 27% ROI)