Injuries Update for Nationals vs Braves – September 24, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Washington Nationals on September 24, 2025, both teams come into the matchup with disappointing seasons. The Braves sit at 75-83, while the Nationals trail with a record of 64-94. In their last game, the Braves suffered a significant loss, which puts even more pressure on them to perform well in front of their home crowd at Truist Park.

The Braves are projected to start Bryce Elder, a right-handed pitcher with an 8-10 record and a troubling 5.36 ERA this season. However, his 4.08 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit unlucky and could improve. Elder’s groundball rate of 49% aligns well against a Nationals offense that has struggled with power, ranking 27th in home runs this season with just 149. On the other hand, Andrew Alvarez is projected to start for the Nationals. Although his 2.84 ERA looks impressive, he’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball according to metrics.

The Braves offense ranks 13th overall, suggesting they have the talent to score, but their 27th rank in stolen bases highlights their challenges on the base paths. Meanwhile, the Nationals rank 25th in overall offensive production and have a strong 10th ranking in stolen bases—an area where they might exploit the Braves’ weaknesses.

Betting lines currently favor the Braves, who are -185, indicating an implied win probability of 63%. Given the matchup dynamics, the Braves could bounce back from their recent struggles, especially with their offense facing off against a pitcher who has been fortunate rather than effective. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, hinting at expectations for a high-scoring affair.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Andrew Alvarez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Considering that flyball pitchers hold a significant edge over flyball batters, Andrew Alvarez and his 49.3% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in today’s outing squaring off against 2 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jacob Young – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jacob Young has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph dropping to 76.3-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Washington Nationals batters jointly place 23rd- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  The Washington Nationals have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Bryce Elder in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nick Allen – Over/Under Total Bases
  Typically, bats like Nick Allen who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andrew Alvarez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+12.80 Units / 27% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 73 of their last 132 games (+8.82 Units / 6% ROI)
• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110/-120)
  Bryce Elder has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 49% ROI)