Weather for Padres vs Rockies Game – 9/7/25

San Diego Padres

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies will host the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on September 7, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Rockies are struggling this season, holding a record of 40-102, while the Padres sit at 77-65, firmly in the playoff hunt. In their last encounter, the Rockies lost a close contest to the Padres, with a score of 10-8.

Tanner Gordon is projected to take the mound for the Rockies, bringing a mixed bag of performances this season. Although he has shown flashes of potential, his 6.07 ERA and ranking as the 256th best starting pitcher in MLB highlight his struggles. In his most recent outing on August 31, Gordon pitched well, going 6 innings with 2 earned runs and 9 strikeouts, suggesting he may be turning a corner. However, he projects to allow 3.5 earned runs over 4.5 innings today, which is concerning.

On the other hand, Dylan Cease will start for the Padres. Cease has been a bright spot for San Diego with a 4.81 ERA, ranking him as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB. He projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, and his 30.2% strikeout rate gives him a clear advantage against a Rockies offense that ranks 2nd in the league for most strikeouts.

Despite the Rockies’ offensive woes, which rank them 27th in the league, they do have a capable hitter who has been on fire recently, boasting a .476 batting average over the last week. However, the Padres’ offense, while not stellar in home runs (29th), still ranks 19th overall in MLB, giving them a slight edge in this matchup.

With the Rockies as heavy underdogs, the betting odds favor the Padres significantly. However, if Gordon can replicate his last performance and Cease has a rough outing, this game could be more competitive than expected. The game total is set at a high 11.0 runs, indicating that oddsmakers anticipate a scoring fest, further complicating the narrative for bettors.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Dylan Cease’s 2554-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 97th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+140/-180)
  Jackson Merrill has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The San Diego Padres (18.6 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy group of batters on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tanner Gordon – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Tanner Gordon is projected to throw 78 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of all pitchers on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Mickey Moniak has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph to 94.2-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 77 of their last 137 games (+9.95 Units / 6% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 65 away games (+12.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Brenton Doyle has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.40 Units / 28% ROI)