Betting Trends for Cubs vs Rockies Game – 8/29/25

Chicago Cubs

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on August 29, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Rockies, languishing at 38-96, have had a dismal season, while the Cubs sit comfortably at 76-58, showcasing a solid campaign. Last night, the Cubs continued their strong play, defeating the Rockies in a decisive game.

On the mound, the Rockies are projected to start German Marquez, who has struggled to find his rhythm this year with a 3-11 record and an ERA of 5.67. His 4.88 xFIP suggests some bad luck, but with a low strikeout rate of 16.1% facing a Cubs lineup that is among the least strikeout-prone in MLB, Marquez may face an uphill battle. He is projected to pitch an average of 4.8 innings today, allowing approximately 3.6 earned runs, which doesn’t inspire confidence.

In contrast, the Cubs will send Cade Horton to the mound. With an 8-4 record and an impressive 2.88 ERA, Horton ranks as the 84th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his projections indicate that he might regress slightly, as his xFIP of 4.30 is higher than his ERA. Nonetheless, he is expected to keep the Rockies’ struggling offense at bay.

The Rockies rank 27th in MLB offensively, while the Cubs boast the 9th best offense, making this matchup heavily favor the visitors. The Cubs have an implied team total of 6.54 runs for today, and with the Rockies’ poor performance, they are big underdogs with a moneyline of +190. The high Game Total of 11.0 runs reflects the expected offensive output, heavily tilting in favor of the Cubs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-220)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Matt Shaw – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  In the past 7 days, Matt Shaw’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago ranks as the #2 squad in the league when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (17.6% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• German Marquez – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects German Marquez to throw 83 pitches in this matchup (5th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jordan Beck – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Jordan Beck’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 87.3-mph seasonal average has decreased to 77.2-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado’s 88.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball: #26 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 77 of their last 130 games (+16.32 Units / 11% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-235)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 61 of their last 125 games (+11.15 Units / 6% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Hunter Goodman has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+6.70 Units / 52% ROI)