Boxscore for Rockies vs Astros – 8/26/25

Colorado Rockies

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Houston Astros

On August 26, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Colorado Rockies at Minute Maid Park for the first game of their interleague series. The Astros, sitting at 72-59, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Rockies’ struggles continue, boasting a dismal 37-94 record. This matchup comes after the Astros’ recent impressive performance, where they secured a convincing victory in their last game, further solidifying their push for a playoff spot.

Houston is projected to start Hunter Brown, who ranks as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Brown’s 10-5 record this season, along with an outstanding ERA of 2.36, showcases his ability to dominate opposing lineups. He faces Tanner Gordon, who has had a tough year with a 4-5 record and a troubling ERA of 7.11. While Gordon’s xFIP suggests he might be a bit unlucky, he still struggles against a solid Astros offense that ranks 13th overall in the league.

The Astros’ offense is particularly lethal, ranking 4th in team batting average, providing ample run support for Brown. In contrast, the Rockies rank 26th in overall offense and 23rd in batting average, making their task even more daunting. With the Astros favored heavily in the betting market with a moneyline of -325, the projections indicate they could tally a high team total of 5.11 runs, while the Rockies are projected for just 2.89 runs.

This matchup presents a clear advantage for Houston, as Brown’s high strikeout rate could exploit the Rockies’ tendency to strike out, being the 2nd most strikeout-prone offense in MLB. With the stakes high and their current form favoring them, the Astros look primed to start the series on a strong note.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tanner Gordon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Among all SPs, Tanner Gordon’s fastball velocity of 91.5 mph is in the 25th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Mickey Moniak is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Colorado Rockies have 6 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brenton Doyle, Ryan Ritter, Ezequiel Tovar, Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck, Mickey Moniak).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Hunter Brown (48.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Colorado’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Jesus Sanchez may have an edge against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 124 games (+11.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 59 away games (+13.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Tyler Freeman has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)