Learn How to Watch the Reds vs D-Backs Game – August 23, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Cincinnati Reds on August 23, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of a tight contest for postseason positioning. The Diamondbacks, currently sitting at 63-66, are having an average season, while the Reds, with a record of 67-62, are performing above average. This matchup is crucial for both teams, especially after the Diamondbacks edged out the Reds 6-5 in their last encounter just yesterday.

On the mound, Arizona is set to start Jalen Beeks, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled this season, projected to pitch only 1.9 innings and allow around 1.0 earned runs today. His recent form reflects a concerning trend, as he only managed to complete 2 innings in his last start against the Reds on August 9, allowing 2 earned runs.

Conversely, Cincinnati will counter with Andrew Abbott, who has been impressive this year, boasting an 8-3 record and a stellar 2.28 ERA. Abbott’s performance has earned him a ranking as the 73rd best starting pitcher in MLB, making him a solid asset for the Reds. However, the projections suggest that he may have been somewhat lucky this season, as his xFIP is significantly higher than his ERA.

The Diamondbacks offense ranks 4th in MLB, showcasing their power with 179 home runs this season, which could pose a challenge for Abbott, a pitcher who tends to allow fly balls. The Reds, on the other hand, rank 17th in offense, indicating they may struggle to keep pace with Arizona’s potent lineup.

With a high game total of 9.0 runs, betting markets see this as a closely contested matchup, with the Diamondbacks holding a moneyline of +100. Given their strong offensive capabilities against a pitcher who may be vulnerable, Arizona could be in a favorable position to secure another victory in this series.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue in the majors in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Noelvi Marte has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Noelvi Marte hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  With 8 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Jalen Beeks meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 87.8-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 81.6-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .319, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .330 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+17.45 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 100 games (+23.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.00 Units / 17% ROI)