How to Watch Twins vs White Sox – Saturday, August 23, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on August 23, 2025, they do so with a disappointing record of 45-83, while the Twins sit at 59-69. Both teams are struggling, particularly the White Sox, who rank 28th in MLB offense and have been unable to find consistent success at the plate. In their last matchup, the White Sox fell to the Twins by a score of 9-7, marking the second game in this series.

Davis Martin is projected to start for the White Sox, coming off a solid outing on August 17, where he pitched six innings without allowing any earned runs. Despite his 4-9 record this season, Martin’s 3.94 ERA indicates he has been somewhat effective, though his 4.48 xFIP suggests he may have been lucky and could regress. He projects to pitch an average of 5.0 innings today, allowing 3.1 earned runs, which could be a concern given the White Sox’s offensive struggles.

On the other side, Mick Abel will take the mound for the Twins. Abel has had a rough season, with a 5.04 ERA and a troubling last start where he allowed five earned runs in just two innings. His projections indicate he may only go 4.6 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs.

Despite their poor performances, the White Sox have a high implied team total of 4.75 runs for this game, suggesting that sportsbooks believe they might find a way to score against a struggling Twins bullpen, which ranks last in MLB. With both offenses underperforming, this matchup could hinge on which pitcher can navigate through the lineup more effectively.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Mick Abel – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Mick Abel’s 2545-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 96th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Luke Keaschall – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Luke Keaschall has been lucky this year, putting up a .407 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .319 — a .088 gap.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen ranks as the worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Davis Martin – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Davis Martin has tallied 16.9 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 77th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Luis Robert Jr. is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Colson Montgomery pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 53 games at home (+15.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 57 games (+10.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+130/-170)
  Matt Wallner has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI)