Check Out the Guardians vs Rangers Best Bets and Expert Picks – Saturday August 23, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face the Cleveland Guardians on August 23, 2025, both teams find themselves in similar positions with records of 64-66 and 64-63, respectively. This matchup has significant implications, as both teams are striving to improve their standings in the American League. The Rangers dropped the first game in this series, which adds a layer of urgency as they look to bounce back.

Projected starters Jack Leiter and Logan Allen present an intriguing contrast. Leiter, a right-handed pitcher, has struggled this season, ranking as the 228th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a decent ERA of 4.06, his 4.95 xFIP suggests he’s been lucky and may not sustain this level of performance. He has pitched 22 games this year, holding a 7-7 record, but his projections indicate he may only average 5.0 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed. Notably, he projects to allow a troubling 4.3 hits and 2.1 walks.

On the other hand, Logan Allen has also had his challenges, but his ERA of 3.87 is solid, and he is projected to pitch an average of 5.5 innings. However, his 4.70 xFIP indicates potential regression. While he has a slightly better outlook, both pitchers are facing offenses that have struggled this season.

The Rangers’ offense ranks 27th overall and 26th in batting average, making it one of the worst in MLB. Meanwhile, the Guardians are not far behind, holding the 29th spot in overall offense and dead last in batting average. With the Rangers boasting a higher implied team total of 4.45 runs, it suggests that they may have the upper hand in this matchup.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Logan Allen has relied on his four-seamer 14.1% less often this year (34.2%) than he did last season (48.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Kyle Manzardo has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.1-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 89.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Hedges (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Jack Leiter’s fastball velocity of 96.6 mph grades out in the 94th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Adolis Garcia’s true offensive talent to be a .325, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .043 gap between that mark and his actual .282 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Texas Rangers hitters as a group place 21st- in baseball for power this year when using their 30.3% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives 100 mph or faster.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games at home (+10.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 away games (+12.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Ezequiel Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Ezequiel Duran has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 60% ROI)