Latest Player Stats for Pirates vs Cubs – Saturday August 16, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 16, 2025, in a pivotal National League Central matchup at Wrigley Field. The Cubs are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 68-53, while the Pirates are struggling at 52-71. In their last outing, the Cubs fell to the Pirates by a narrow 3-2 margin, marking a disappointing result as they look to bounce back.

Shota Imanaga is projected to take the mound for the Cubs, and he has been performing well this season, holding an 8-5 record and an impressive ERA of 3.19. However, his xFIP of 4.45 suggests that he may have been a bit fortunate, indicating potential regression. Imanaga’s last start was solid, pitching 7 innings with 3 earned runs and 9 strikeouts. He faces a Pirates offense that ranks 30th in the league, struggling to generate power with only 87 home runs this season, the fewest in MLB. This matchup could work in Imanaga’s favor, especially since he is a high-flyball pitcher with a flyball rate of 51%.

On the other side, Michael Burrows is set to start for the Pirates. His 1-4 record and average ERA of 4.66 reveal his challenges this season. The projections suggest he may improve, but he is still seen as a below-average pitcher. Burrows’ last outing saw him allow 4 earned runs over 5 innings, which highlights his inconsistency.

The Cubs boast the 6th best offense in MLB, and with an implied team total of 5.08 runs for this game, they are favored to score significantly. With both teams heading in different directions, the Cubs have the upper hand in this matchup, making them an appealing choice for bettors.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Michael Burrows – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Among all starting pitchers, Mike Burrows’s fastball velocity of 94.7 mph grades out in the 75th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 80.4-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Tommy Pham has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-215)
  Shota Imanaga is an extreme flyball pitcher (44.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue in MLB today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.348) provides evidence that Ian Happ has been unlucky this year with his .313 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-220)
  The Chicago Cubs projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-best of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-215)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+15.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 118 games (+21.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Matt Shaw – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-145)
  Matt Shaw has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.80 Units / 47% ROI)