Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Red Sox vs Astros – 8/12/25

Boston Red Sox

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on August 12, 2025, both teams find themselves in the thick of the playoff race. The Astros, with a strong record of 67-52, are in a good position, while the Red Sox, sitting slightly behind at 65-55, are looking to gain ground in what is shaping up to be a competitive American League matchup.

In their last encounter, the Astros edged out the Red Sox 7-6, showcasing their ability to capitalize on clutch moments. However, the Astros’ pitcher Spencer Arrighetti, projected to start, comes into this game struggling. In his latest outing on August 6, he allowed 5 earned runs over just 4 innings, raising his ERA to a troubling 7.43. Despite this, projections suggest he could perform better today, as they indicate he may limit earned runs to 2.8 on average.

On the other hand, Dustin May of the Red Sox is also looking to bounce back after giving up 3 earned runs in his last start. While May’s ERA stands at 4.93, stats show that he has been somewhat unlucky this season, and he is projected to perform better than his recent numbers suggest.

Offensively, the Astros rank 10th overall and 2nd in batting average, which indicates they have the tools to exploit any weaknesses in May’s performance. Comparatively, the Red Sox offense has been solid as well, ranking 6th in MLB. This matchup could hinge on which pitcher can find their rhythm; if Arrighetti can surprise with an improved performance, the Astros may leverage their home advantage at Minute Maid Park.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Dustin May – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Due to his huge platoon split, Dustin May should be in good shape being matched up with 6 hitters in the projected offense who share his handedness in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Spencer Arrighetti has compiled a whopping 7.42 ERA over his last 3 outings.
  Explain: A pitcher who has struggled in his most recent outings may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Because of Dustin May’s huge platoon split, Jose Altuve will be at a huge disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate today.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Placing 8th-highest in MLB this year, Houston Astros batters as a group have posted a 15° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable stat to study power ability).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+9.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 38 games (+13.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+165/-220)
  Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+9.25 Units / 93% ROI)