Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
(-110/-110)+115
As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Miami Marlins on August 7, 2025, at Truist Park, both teams come in with contrasting fortunes. The Braves, sitting at 47-66, have had a rough season and are coming off a narrow 5-4 loss to the Marlins in their last matchup. Meanwhile, the Marlins have seen better days with a record of 56-57, and they recently secured a 6-4 win, giving them a slight edge in confidence.
On the mound, the Braves are projected to start Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled this season with a 5.68 ERA and a Power Ranking of #306 out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him one of the least effective starters in MLB. Carrasco’s last outing was uneventful, where he pitched 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs while striking out 5. He projects to go about 4.9 innings today, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, which doesn’t bode well considering his recent form.
In contrast, the Marlins will hand the ball to Eury Perez, who has been impressive this year with a 2.70 ERA and ranks as the 49th best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics. Perez’s last start was outstanding, as he went 6 innings without allowing any earned runs, striking out 5 batters. While he projects similarly at 4.9 innings pitched, his ability to limit damage will be crucial in this matchup.
Offensively, the Braves rank 20th in MLB, struggling to find consistency, particularly in batting average where they sit 22nd. This contrasts sharply with the Marlins, who boast a more robust offense, ranking 16th overall and 10th in batting average. Despite the Braves’ underwhelming season, the projections suggest they might have a chance to exceed expectations in this matchup, especially with their strong bullpen ranked 8th in MLB.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)Eury Perez is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #24 HR venue among all parks in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)Eric Wagaman is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Eric Wagaman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Carlos Carrasco’s change-up usage has dropped by 5.9% from last year to this one (23.3% to 17.4%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Nick Allen’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 84-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 81.1-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Compared to their .325 overall projected rate, the .314 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Atlanta Braves projected offense in this game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal a bit watered down.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+8.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-135)The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 37 games (+18.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+15.65 Units / 28% ROI)