Betting Guide and Odds for Reds vs Pirates – Thursday August 7, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On August 7, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Cincinnati Reds in the first game of their series at PNC Park. Both teams have had disappointing results in their recent games, with the Pirates narrowly losing to the Reds by a score of 4-2 in their last encounter, while the Reds suffered a more significant setback, falling 6-1 in their previous matchup. Sitting at 49-66 this season, Pittsburgh continues to struggle, ranking 30th in MLB power rankings. In contrast, the Cincinnati Reds hold a better record of 60-55, finding themselves in the middle of the pack.

On the mound, the Pirates will start Paul Skenes, an elite right-handed pitcher who has impressed this season, holding a 2.02 ERA and ranking 2nd among all starting pitchers in MLB. However, the projections suggest that he may be due for some regression, with his xFIP sitting at 3.08. Skenes is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing an average of 1.8 earned runs and striking out 7.1 batters, which bodes well for the Pirates.

Brady Singer, also a right-handed pitcher for the Reds, has had a solid season with a 4.36 ERA, though he is considered below-average. He performed well in his last start, striking out 10 batters in 6 innings without allowing any earned runs. The projections suggest he will pitch approximately 5.6 innings, giving up around 2.7 earned runs.

Pittsburgh’s offense has been abysmal, ranking 30th in MLB, struggling particularly with power, hitting just 81 home runs this season. Conversely, Cincinnati’s offense ranks 18th, leaving them with a moderate advantage. Despite the betting line favoring the Pirates at -165, the Reds may capitalize on Skenes’ potential regression and Pittsburgh’s offensive woes, making this matchup an interesting one to watch.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Brady Singer’s 2424-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 81st percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The 7.1% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds grades them out as the #28 offense in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)
  Paul Skenes has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jack Suwinski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  In the past week’s worth of games, Jack Suwinski’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 17.5% up to 40%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Henry Davis pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 69 of their last 112 games (+21.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 93 games (+24.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.55 Units / 26% ROI)