Get the Latest Score Updates for Blue Jays vs Rockies – Wednesday August 06, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

@

Colorado Rockies

On August 6, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Toronto Blue Jays in the third game of their interleague series at Coors Field. The Rockies, struggling mightily this season with a record of 30-83, are already out of contention for their division and face a tough challenge against a Blue Jays team that sits at 67-48 and ranks as the 3rd best offense in MLB. In their last matchup, the Rockies fell to the Blue Jays by a score of 10-4, continuing their rough spell.

The pitching matchup features Colorado’s Kyle Freeland, who is projected to start. Freeland has had a tough go this season, sporting a 2-11 record and a 5.26 ERA, ranking him as the 186th best starting pitcher in the league. His projections suggest he’ll last around 5.0 innings, allowing nearly 4 earned runs while striking out an average of just 2.8 batters. Adding to his woes, Freeland’s last outing on July 30 saw him go only 3 innings, giving up 2 earned runs without a strikeout.

On the other side, Toronto will counter with Kevin Gausman, who, despite a recent rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs, holds a more respectable 3.99 ERA and has a solid track record this season. Gausman’s performance will be crucial as he faces a low-strikeout Rockies offense, which ranks 25th overall.

As for the offensive stats, the Rockies rank 24th in batting average, while the Blue Jays boast the best average in MLB. With Colorado’s best hitter showing some recent form, this matchup may still present opportunities for the Rockies. However, with a projected game total of 11.5 runs and betting lines favoring the Blue Jays significantly, they are expected to dominate once again.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Kevin Gausman has gone to his sinker 5.3% less often this season (0.1%) than he did last season (5.4%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Tyler Heineman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Tyler Heineman has had some very good luck this year. His .387 figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .280.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Toronto Blue Jays project to score the most runs of all teams on the slate today, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all starters, Kyle Freeland’s fastball velocity of 91.2 mph grades out in the 21st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Mickey Moniak has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Compared to their .315 overall projected rate, the .299 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 63 of their last 110 games (+10.00 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 86 games (+17.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Warming Bernabel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-270/+200)
  Warming Bernabel has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 49% ROI)