Picks and Betting Line for Brewers vs Giants Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Milwaukee Brewers

@

San Francisco Giants

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Shane Drohan – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Shane Drohan has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -7.9 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme groundball bats like Christian Yelich usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Webb.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 5th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Logan Webb has relied on his slider 7.9% less often this season (18.7%) than he did last year (26.6%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Jung Hoo Lee has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.