Explore the Brewers vs Braves Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Atlanta Braves

On August 5, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Truist Park for the second game of their series. The Braves, struggling this season with a record of 47-64, find themselves in a difficult position, while the Brewers are thriving at 68-44. Despite their current standing, the Braves are coming off a tough loss to the Brewers in the previous game, falling 3-1.

Starting for Atlanta is Joey Wentz, who is projected to pitch 4.9 innings with an average of 2.5 earned runs allowed. Wentz has had a challenging year, ranking as the 207th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, which signifies he has been among the least effective this season. However, he recently showed signs of improvement by pitching well in his last start on July 30, going seven innings without allowing any earned runs and striking out seven batters.

On the other hand, Milwaukee will counter with Freddy Peralta, who boasts a strong record of 12-5 and an impressive ERA of 3.08. Although Peralta had a rough outing in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs, he remains a solid option on the mound and is ranked as the 37th best starter in MLB. The projections suggest he will pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs while striking out an average of 5.6 batters.

The Braves’ offensive struggles continue to be a concern, ranking 19th in MLB this season, particularly with their batting average sitting at 21st. This matchup presents a significant challenge for Atlanta against a Brewers team that ranks 11th in overall offense and 3rd in batting average. Despite being underdogs with a moneyline of +120, the Braves’ bullpen ranks 8th in MLB, providing a glimmer of hope as they look to turn around their season and upset the Brewers. The game total is set low at 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tight contest.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Freddy Peralta’s 2453-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 87th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Caleb Durbin is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Joey Wentz – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+140)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Joey Wentz is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 12th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Nick Allen’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 84-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 78.6-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games at home (+9.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 62 games (+23.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-220)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+6.75 Units / 34% ROI)