Game Breakdown: Mariners vs Athletics Head-to-Head Insights 7/28/2025

Seattle Mariners

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Athletics

On July 28, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Seattle Mariners at Sutter Health Park in what is the opening game of their series. The Athletics are struggling this season with a record of 46-62, while the Mariners are having a solid year at 56-50. In their last game, the Athletics pulled off an impressive victory, winning 7-1, while the Mariners faced defeat, losing 4-1.

The matchup features two starting pitchers in contrasting forms. Oakland’s JP Sears, projected to start, has been underwhelming overall, ranking 189th among MLB starters according to advanced stats. His ERA stands at 4.98, which is below average, though he has shown signs of being unlucky this season with a more favorable xERA of 3.95. Sears has averaged 5.1 innings and is projected to allow 3.2 earned runs, indicating potential trouble against a powerful Mariners offense that ranks 5th in the league with 148 home runs.

Luis Castillo, on the other hand, represents a significant challenge for the Athletics. The Mariners’ ace has a solid record of 7-6 and an excellent ERA of 3.30. With an average projection of 5.7 innings pitched and the ability to strike out 5.5 batters per game, Castillo is expected to hold down the Athletics’ lineup, which, despite ranking 8th in overall offensive strength, has struggled to maintain consistency.

Betting markets are leaning slightly toward the Mariners, offering them a moneyline of -125 against the Athletics’ +105. With the Athletics projected for a high team total of 5.06 runs, this could be a high-scoring affair, especially given the Game Total set at 10.5 runs. As both teams look to establish themselves in this series, the focus will be on how the Athletics’ offense can overcome Castillo’s strong arm and whether Sears can rise to the occasion despite his challenging season.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Luis Castillo’s 2212-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 14th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Mitch Garver has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 9% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher today) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Athletics Insights

• JP Sears will “start” for Athletics in today’s game but will fill the role of an opener and may not pitch more than a couple framess.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Carlos Cortes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Carlos Cortes has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Athletics’ bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 103 games (+9.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 96 games (+12.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+250/-350)
  Randy Arozarena has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 away games (+17.40 Units / 193% ROI)