Discover the Nationals vs Astros Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Monday, July 28th, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will host the Washington Nationals on July 28, 2025, in what marks the opener of a brief interleague series. Houston is having a strong season, currently holding a record of 60-46, while the Nationals are struggling at 43-62. The Astros have the 12th best offense in MLB, highlighted by a stellar team batting average that ranks 2nd overall. In contrast, the Nationals rank 22nd offensively, with their struggles evident in their subpar home run total.

In their previous game, the Astros faced a disappointing 7-1 loss, while the Nationals rallied for a 7-2 victory, which underscores the contrasting momentum heading into this matchup. Framber Valdez, projected to start for Houston, has been impressive this season with an 11-4 record and an exceptional 2.67 ERA. Ranked as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB, he projects to pitch around 6.2 innings, allowing just 2.0 earned runs on average. However, there are indicators suggesting he may have benefited from some luck this season, with a higher expected ERA.

On the other side, Brad Lord is set to take the mound for Washington. Although his ERA of 3.39 appears solid, projections suggest he may be due for regression, potentially allowing more earned runs than anticipated. With a current moneyline of -265 favoring the Astros, this game presents a significant opportunity for Houston to bounce back against a struggling Nationals lineup. Given their offensive prowess and Valdez’s elite pitching, the Astros are well-positioned to secure a victory and continue their playoff push.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Brad Lord – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Bradley Lord will hold the platoon advantage against 6 opposing hitters in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Paul DeJong has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-240)
  In his previous game started, Framber Valdez was rolling and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Taylor Trammell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Taylor Trammell has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.4-mph to 99.9-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+12.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• Zack Short – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)
  Zack Short has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+17.50 Units / 350% ROI)