Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Marlins vs Brewers – Saturday July 26, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face off against the Miami Marlins on July 26, 2025, at American Family Field, the stakes are high for the home team, who currently sit with a solid record of 61-42. The Brewers are enjoying a great season, while the Marlins, at 49-53, find themselves in a below-average position. In their last encounter, the Brewers took a decisive win, further solidifying their chances of maintaining a strong standing in the National League.

Jose Quintana is set to take the mound for Milwaukee. While he ranks as the 215th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Quintana has been effective this season, holding a 3.49 ERA across 14 starts, suggesting he has been fortunate. He may face some challenges against a Marlins offense that ranks 20th overall but has a respectable batting average of .265, landing them 10th in that category. Quintana’s tendency to walk batters (9.5 BB%) could be mitigated by Miami’s low walk rate, giving him an edge in this matchup.

On the other side, Janson Junk will get the nod for Miami. Though he has a commendable 3.09 ERA this season, his 3.76 xFIP indicates he may be overperforming. Junk’s average projections show he struggles with strikeouts, averaging only 3.5 per game, which could present opportunities for the Brewers’ lineup that ranks 12th in batting average but disappointingly 25th in home runs.

The Brewers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -165, reflecting a projected team total of 4.71 runs, while the Marlins’ implied total stands at 3.79 runs. With both teams looking to capitalize on their pitching matchups, this game promises to be a compelling contest as Milwaukee seeks to build on their momentum.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Janson Junk – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Compared to average, Janson Junk has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -12.1 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Kyle Stowers has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Jose Quintana’s sinker rate has jumped by 14.5% from last year to this one (30.4% to 44.9%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  William Contreras has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.3-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 90.4-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Milwaukee Brewers (19.4 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-heavy lineup of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-155)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 60 games (+20.70 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 59 games (+15.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Isaac Collins – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Isaac Collins has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 45% ROI)