Get the Rays vs Red Sox Injury Report – Sunday, July 13, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on July 13, 2025, at Fenway Park, both teams are enjoying above-average seasons in the competitive American League East. The Red Sox currently hold a record of 52-45, while the Rays are slightly behind at 50-46. This matchup is crucial, especially since the Red Sox edged out the Rays 1-0 in their last game on July 12, showcasing their pitching strength and defensive prowess.

Brayan Bello is projected to take the mound for the Red Sox, bringing an impressive season record of 5-3 and a solid ERA of 3.27. Bello’s recent performance included a complete game on July 8, where he allowed just 2 earned runs while striking out 10 batters. However, his 4.25 xFIP indicates that he might have had some good fortune thus far, suggesting potential challenges ahead. On the other side, Ryan Pepiot will start for the Rays, with a 6-6 record and a 3.32 ERA. Pepiot has also shown promise, but his 3.89 xFIP hints at a similar concern regarding his luck.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 5th in MLB, demonstrating a robust lineup that has been productive throughout the season. Their strength is bolstered by a top-tier batting average of .275, ranking 6th overall. Meanwhile, the Rays’ offense sits at a more modest 13th, despite boasting the 3rd best batting average in the league. Both teams are looking to capitalize on their strengths, but the Red Sox’s superior lineup and recent victory could tilt the odds in their favor.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the projections suggest a competitive yet closely matched game. The betting markets currently favor the Red Sox with a moneyline of -120, reflecting their recent form and home advantage. As both teams vie for crucial wins, this matchup promises to be an exciting chapter in their ongoing rivalry.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Out of all starters, Ryan Pepiot’s fastball spin rate of 2411 rpm is in the 78th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-205)
  Jake Mangum has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Tampa Bay Rays (20.3 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy batting order of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Because flyball pitchers have a big advantage over flyball hitters, Brayan Bello and his 50.5% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in this game going up against 4 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+350/-520)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has performed at a clip of 23.8 steals per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 84th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games (+11.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.0 (-145)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 away games (+12.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+125/-160)
  Junior Caminero has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 39% ROI)