Read the Guardians vs White Sox Prediction and Game Breakdown – July 12th, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

@

Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians prepare for their third matchup of the series on July 12, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standings in a competitive American League Central. The White Sox sit at 32-63, struggling through a dismal season, while the Guardians are slightly better at 44-49, but still below average. The Guardians are facing a tough road ahead as they try to climb back into contention.

In their last game on July 11, the White Sox scored a narrow victory against the Guardians, winning 5-4. This win came after a difficult stretch for the White Sox, who have had trouble finding consistency this season. Chicago’s offense ranks as the 30th best in MLB, indicating significant struggles at the plate.

On the mound, Sean Burke is projected to start for the White Sox. His season has been underwhelming, with a 4-8 record and a 4.40 ERA. His advanced stats suggest he may have been lucky this year, with a 5.05 xFIP indicating potential for worse results moving forward. Burke’s average projection of 4.9 innings pitched and 2.9 earned runs allowed today does not inspire confidence.

Conversely, Tanner Bibee takes the hill for the Guardians. With a record of 4-9 and a 4.35 ERA, Bibee has been slightly better than Burke this season. Projections indicate he’s likely to pitch around 5.8 innings and allow approximately 2.7 earned runs, hinting at a more favorable performance today.

While both offenses have struggled, the Guardians’ best hitter has been heating up, boasting a .333 batting average over the past week. The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a potentially high-scoring affair, but with both teams’ offensive struggles, it remains to be seen how this will play out. With the Guardians favored at -145, there could be value in betting on them to bounce back after yesterday’s loss.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Tanner Bibee’s 2247-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a notable 114-rpm fall off from last season’s 2361-rpm figure.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Nolan Jones is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Projected catcher Austin Hedges profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Sean Burke is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1500/-50000)
  Andrew Benintendi has performed at a clip of 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+9.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3000)
  Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+12.00 Units / 300% ROI)