Find Out How to Watch Blue Jays vs Athletics – Friday, July 11th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Athletics

On July 11, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Sutter Health Park, marking the start of a new series. The Athletics, struggling with a record of 39-56, are having a rough season and currently sit well below .500. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays boast an impressive 54-39 record, highlighting their strong performance this year. In their last outing, the Athletics managed a narrow victory, winning 5-4 against their opponents, while the Blue Jays faced a setback, losing 2-1.

For this matchup, Oakland will turn to Luis Severino, who has seen better days. Severino’s ERA stands at a disappointing 5.30 and he has a win-loss record of 2-10 this year. Though he has been unlucky according to projections, he remains a low-strikeout pitcher facing one of the lowest strikeout offenses in the league, which could prove advantageous for the Blue Jays.

On the other side, Toronto will rely on Max Scherzer, one of the better pitchers in the league, currently ranked 64th among starters. Scherzer’s ERA is slightly below average at 4.76. He projects to allow around 2.8 earned runs today, which is appealing given the Athletics’ average offense, ranked 12th in baseball.

The game total is set at a high 10.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive offensive display. The betting lines show the Athletics as underdogs with a moneyline of +145 and an implied team total of 4.65 runs, while the Blue Jays are favorites at -165 with a high implied team total of 5.85 runs. The Athletics will need to step up their game to surprise the Blue Jays and take a crucial win in this first matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Max Scherzer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  With 6 batters who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Max Scherzer ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Addison Barger has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last season’s 88.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (18 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy set of hitters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Luis Severino’s 95.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1-mph decrease from last year’s 96.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Typically, bats like Brent Rooker who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Max Scherzer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 91 games (+8.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-165)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 59 games (+14.59 Units / 19% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-155/+120)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.80 Units / 33% ROI)