
Texas Rangers

Los Angeles Angels
(-115/-105)-110
The July 10, 2025 matchup features the Los Angeles Angels hosting the Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium in what is shaping up to be a competitive series. The Angels currently sit at 45-47, while the Rangers trail slightly at 45-48. With both teams under .500, they are looking to gain momentum, especially after the Angels triumphed over the Rangers 11-8 in their last encounter.
Starting on the mound for the Angels is Jack Kochanowicz, who is projected to pitch 5.4 innings with an average of 3.1 earned runs allowed. While Kochanowicz has struggled this season with a 3-8 record and a 5.42 ERA, the projections suggest his luck may turn as his xFIP of 4.81 indicates he might be performing better than his numbers suggest. However, he faces a challenging matchup against the Rangers’ offense, which ranks 27th in MLB this season.
On the other side, Patrick Corbin takes the mound for the Rangers. Corbin has a slightly better record at 5-7 with a 4.18 ERA. He pitched well in his last start, lasting 6 innings with only 2 earned runs. Corbin’s low-strikeout approach may give him an edge against the Angels, who have the 2nd most strikeouts in MLB. Nevertheless, he may encounter issues with his projection of 1.8 walks, especially against a disciplined Angels lineup that ranks 4th in least walks.
With a Game Total set at 10.0 runs, oddsmakers expect a high-scoring affair. Despite the Angels’ current form and their recent win, they come into this game with a moneyline set at -115, suggesting a tight contest ahead. With the Rangers’ bullpen ranked 21st in MLB, the Angels may find opportunities to exploit this weakness as they seek to capitalize on their home-field advantage.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Patrick Corbin projects for 14.4 outs in today’s game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
- Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Extreme flyball hitters like Marcus Semien generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- It may be best to expect better results for the Texas Rangers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Jack Kochanowicz’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (34.3% compared to 21.5% last year) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Yoan Moncada – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Yoan Moncada has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Los Angeles Angels – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Angels bullpen ranks as the worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (-170)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 79 games (+16.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-155/+120)Josh H. Smith has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)