Winning Probability and Match Preview for Rays vs Tigers – 7/09/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Detroit Tigers

On July 9, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Comerica Park in a critical American League matchup. The Tigers are experiencing a strong season with a record of 59-34, while the Rays sit at 49-43, indicating they are having an above-average season. In their last game, the Rays fell to the Tigers, which adds more pressure on them to bounce back in the series’ finale.

Reese Olson is projected to take the mound for Detroit, and he’s having a solid campaign, ranking as the 38th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Olson’s ERA is an impressive 2.89, though his xFIP suggests he may be due for some regression. He projects to pitch around 5.3 innings and allow approximately 2.1 earned runs today, which aligns with his good performance this season.

Meanwhile, Zack Littell will start for the Rays. While Littell’s 3.50 ERA looks good, his xFIP indicates he’s been a bit fortunate this season. He has a 17.3% strikeout rate, which may prove problematic against a Tigers offense that ranks 6th in the league in both overall performance and home runs, belting 121 homers thus far. Littell’s tendency to allow fly balls could be troubling, especially facing a team known for their power.

The Tigers are currently favored with a moneyline of -150, reflecting their strong home record and potent offense. The projections suggest a high implied team total of 4.62 runs for Detroit, highlighting their ability to capitalize on Littell’s vulnerabilities. As the series wraps up, Detroit aims to solidify their position atop the division, while Tampa Bay seeks to regain momentum despite the setback in the previous game.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Zack Littell’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (61.5% this year) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Hitting from the same side that Reese Olson throws from, Danny Jansen will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-145)
  The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Hitting 4 home runs over the past week, Spencer Torkelson has been on fire in recent games.
  Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+170/-225)
  Parker Meadows hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 93 games (+13.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 67 games (+9.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Danny Jansen has hit the Hits Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.75 Units / 32% ROI)