Washington Nationals
St. Louis Cardinals
(-105/-115)-210
On July 8, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Washington Nationals at Busch Stadium for the first game of their series. The Cardinals, currently sitting with a record of 48-43, are looking to build on their above-average season, while the Nationals, at 37-53, are struggling and have had a notably rough year.
Sonny Gray is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals, coming off a solid stretch with a Win/Loss record of 8-3 and an impressive ERA of 3.51. Gray ranks as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB, which reflects his strong performance this season. The projections indicate he’s expected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing approximately 2.0 earned runs and striking out about 5.9 batters, making him a favorable choice against a low-strikeout Nationals lineup.
Conversely, Jake Irvin will toe the rubber for the Nationals. Although his record stands at 7-3, he carries a less impressive ERA of 4.71. Irvin’s xERA of 5.35 suggests he has benefitted from some good fortune this season, making him a vulnerable option against a Cardinals offense that ranks 15th overall.
The Cardinals are favored heavily in this matchup, with a moneyline of -190 and an implied team total of 4.89 runs. In contrast, the Nationals, who rank 18th in offensive production, have a low implied total of 3.61 runs. Given the Cardinals’ edge in pitching and recent form, they appear poised to take advantage of the Nationals’ struggles and kick off the series on a high note.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Jake Irvin’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (48.3% compared to 41.7% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Extreme groundball hitters like Josh Bell tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Sonny Gray.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Luis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Luis Garcia Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Sonny Gray’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this year (91.2 mph) below where it was last year (92.3 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Nolan Gorman has a ton of pop (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (31.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jake Irvin has a pitch-to-contact profile (7th percentile K%) — great news for Gorman.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- The St. Louis Cardinals have done a weak job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 11.7° mark is among the lowest in Major League Baseball this year (#27 overall).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Betting Trends
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)Lars Nootbaar has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+7.50 Units / 188% ROI)