Rays vs Twins Best Bets and Expert Picks – Sunday July 06, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins will host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 6, 2025, in the third game of their series. The Twins enter this matchup in a challenging position, sitting at 43-46 this season and struggling to find consistency. Meanwhile, the Rays have been performing well with a record of 48-41, showcasing their strength as they aim for the postseason.

Both teams are coming off a tightly contested game yesterday, where the Twins edged out the Rays 6-5. This match showcased a continued trend for the Rays, who are now looking to bounce back after a tough loss. The Twins’ Joe Ryan, highly regarded as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, takes the mound. Ryan’s impressive ERA of 2.75 suggests he has been effective, although his xFIP of 3.56 indicates some luck may be at play. He pitched a strong 7 innings in his last start, allowing just 1 earned run.

On the other side, Drew Rasmussen, projected as the 22nd best starting pitcher, has also had a solid season with a 2.78 ERA. However, he faced difficulties in his last outing, giving up 4 earned runs in only 3 innings. The projections suggest that Rasmussen could face challenges against a Twins offense that, while ranking 20th in MLB, has shown flashes of power, hitting 13th in home runs this year.

The Twins have a slight edge in the betting odds, set at -130, reflecting a competitive matchup. With an implied team total of 4.45 runs, they will look to capitalize on Rasmussen’s recent struggles as they aim to build on their latest victory. The Game Total is currently at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a close contest.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Among all SPs, Drew Rasmussen’s fastball spin rate of 2486 rpm grades out in the 90th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme groundball batters like Yandy Diaz are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Joe Ryan (41.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in Tampa Bay’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Matt Wallner is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Kody Clemens hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.20 Units / 29% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 away games (+10.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 25% ROI)