Boston Red Sox
Washington Nationals
(-105/-115)+200
As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on July 6, 2025, they face a crucial matchup in what has become a challenging season. The Nationals, currently lingering at 37-52, are hoping to turn things around against a Red Sox team that sits at an even 45-45. This game marks the third in the series, with the Nationals eager to improve on last night’s lackluster performance.
Shinnosuke Ogasawara is slated to take the mound for the Nationals. Despite projecting an average of 5.3 innings, his ranking as the 256th best starting pitcher in MLB highlights his struggles this year. He’s expected to allow around 3.0 earned runs while striking out only 4.3 batters, which bodes poorly against a Red Sox lineup that ranks as the 6th best in the league. The Nationals offense, while averaging 5.9 stolen bases, has been underwhelming in power categories, ranking 21st in home runs.
Garrett Crochet, the projected starter for Boston, is a stark contrast. Ranked 6th among MLB starters, he boasts a strong 2.34 ERA and projects to pitch 6.2 innings while allowing just 1.9 earned runs and racking up nearly 8 strikeouts. Facing a low-strikeout offense, Ogasawara might find it difficult to leverage any potential advantage.
With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the odds heavily favor the Red Sox, who hold an implied team total of 5.21 runs compared to the Nationals’ lowly 3.29. While the Nationals may be underdogs, their best hitter has recently shown signs of life, hitting .545 with a 1.182 OPS in the last week. However, it remains to be seen whether that will be enough to secure a win in this crucial matchup.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Garrett Crochet has relied on his four-seam fastball 12.1% less often this season (41.6%) than he did last year (53.7%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Roman Anthony – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Roman Anthony has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 94-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected batting order today (.310 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .325 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Extreme groundball bats like Josh Bell usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Garrett Crochet.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The 8.1% Barrel% of the Washington Nationals ranks them as the #21 club in baseball this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 26 games at home (+13.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-270)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 40 away games (+9.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+18.50 Units / 231% ROI)