Check Out the Pirates vs Mariners Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 7/5/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 5, 2025, they will look to build on their recent success after a convincing 6-0 shutout victory in their last game. The Mariners, currently sitting at 46-42, are having an above-average season, while the Pirates, at 38-51, are struggling with a lackluster performance.

In this Interleague matchup, the Mariners are projected to start Luis Castillo, who has been average this year according to the leading MLB projection system, ranking as the 110th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. However, Castillo’s recent form shows promise, as he pitched well in his last start on June 29, going 6 innings with only 1 earned run, 4 strikeouts, and 2 walks. The projections indicate he will average 5.9 innings today, allowing 2.3 earned runs with a good strikeout rate of 6.0.

On the other side, the Pirates will send Michael Burrows to the mound. Although Burrows has a decent ERA of 4.15, he has been projected as a below-average pitcher this season, with an average outing expected at just 4.5 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs while striking out only 4.8 batters. With a struggling Pirates offense ranked 29th in MLB, they face a daunting challenge against an elite Mariners bullpen, which ranks 1st in the majors.

The Mariners’ offense is ranked 11th overall and is particularly potent, ranking 6th in home runs this season. With Castillo’s favorable matchup against a Pirates lineup that has hit the fewest home runs in MLB, it sets the stage for Seattle to capitalize on their home field advantage and secure another win.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Michael Burrows – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Given that groundball pitchers hold a notable advantage over groundball bats, Mike Burrows and his 36.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable spot in this outing going up against 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Oneil Cruz will probably have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Luis Castillo will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing hitters in today’s game… and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ben Williamson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Benjamin Williamson is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 74 games (+9.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 88 games (+11.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 away games (+6.80 Units / 26% ROI)