Los Angeles Angels
Toronto Blue Jays
(-120/+100)-175
As the Toronto Blue Jays host the Los Angeles Angels on July 5, 2025, excitement surrounds the matchup, especially after the Blue Jays secured a dominant victory in yesterday’s game. With a 50-38 record, Toronto sits in a comfortable position as they aim to solidify their playoff prospects. The Angels, on the other hand, struggle with a 43-44 record, marking them as an average team in the league this season.
Toronto will send Max Scherzer to the mound, a seasoned right-handed pitcher who has had an up-and-down season with a 4.85 ERA. Despite this, his 3.86 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky and is likely to improve. Scherzer’s ability to strike out batters (projected at 6.6 today) will be crucial, especially against an Angels offense that ranks as the 21st best in MLB.
Conversely, Jack Kochanowicz will take the ball for the Angels, bringing a lackluster 5.44 ERA and a 3-8 record this year. Kochanowicz’s low strikeout rate (16.2 K%) could be problematic against one of the league’s best offenses. The Blue Jays rank 8th in MLB offensively, boasting the 3rd best team batting average. However, their power numbers are middling, as evidenced by their 25th rank in home runs.
The advanced projections indicate that the Blue Jays should have the upper hand, with a high implied team total of 5.05 runs, as they face a struggling Angels bullpen ranked 29th in the league. With Scherzer on the mound and a potent lineup behind him, Toronto appears primed to continue their success against a vulnerable Angels team.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jack Kochanowicz has utilized his secondary pitches 12.1% more often this year (33.6%) than he did last year (21.5%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Extreme flyball batters like Mike Trout are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Scherzer.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jorge Soler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Jorge Soler hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Max Scherzer – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)In his last start, Max Scherzer wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to post 1 Ks.Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
- Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Davis Schneider has big-time power (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jack Kochanowicz doesn’t generate many whiffs (14th percentile K%) — great news for Schneider.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.4% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Travis d’Arnaud – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+195/-260)Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)