Review Rockies vs Brewers Bets and Betting Trends – Saturday, June 28, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Colorado Rockies in the second game of their series on June 28, 2025. The Brewers are having a solid season with a 46-36 record, while the Rockies are struggling considerably at just 18-64. The Rockies are not contending for a playoff spot, and their tough year continued yesterday with a disappointing loss to the Brewers, as they continue to seek any signs of life amid a tumultuous season.

Quinn Priester is slated to start for the Brewers, bringing a decent 3.68 ERA into the matchup, which suggests he has been fortunate this season, given his 4.21 SIERA. Priester’s performance could be beneficial against the Rockies, who ranked 1st in strikeouts in MLB, as he has a low strikeout rate of 16.7%. His ability to limit earned runs—projected at 2.2 today—will be crucial against a Rockies offense that ranks 26th overall.

On the other side, Antonio Senzatela will take the mound for Colorado, sporting a troubling 6.48 ERA. Although projections indicate he may perform better than what his numbers show, his 3-10 record and low strikeout projection of 3.1 underline his struggles. Facing a Brewers lineup that, while average with a ranking of 19th in offense, will not pose a significant power threat, could help Senzatela find some rhythm.

With the Brewers as heavy favorites, their high implied team total of 5.37 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize on Colorado’s inconsistencies. As they navigate their way toward potential playoff positioning, this matchup seems pivotal for Milwaukee’s aspirations, especially with their best hitter performing at a high level recently. The Rockies, on the other hand, will need a significant turnaround to bounce back from this challenging season.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Antonio Senzatela’s high usage percentage of his fastball (56.2% this year) is likely harming his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Ryan Ritter – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Ryan Ritter has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 82.2-mph dropping to 72.6-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .306 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .325 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-250)
  Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Typically, bats like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Antonio Senzatela.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 6.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #30 squad in the game this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-250)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 78 games (+12.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+8.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Joseph Ortiz has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 23% ROI)