Discover the Betting Trends for Blue Jays vs Red Sox Game – Saturday, June 28, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on June 28, 2025, at Fenway Park, both teams come into this matchup with differing fortunes. The Red Sox sit at 40-43 this season, struggling to find their footing, while the Blue Jays boast a record of 44-37, positioning themselves well in the American League East. The last game between these two teams saw the Blue Jays come out on top, further solidifying their place in contention.

On the mound, Lucas Giolito is projected to start for Boston. Despite a respectable Win/Loss record of 3-1 this year, Giolito ranks 151st among starting pitchers, indicating his struggles. His ERA stands at 4.53, which is average, but a 4.01 xFIP suggests he could improve if luck turns in his favor. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings but may allow 3.1 earned runs, 6.1 hits, and 1.7 walks, which could spell trouble against a potent Blue Jays lineup.

Opposing Giolito is Chris Bassitt, who has been solid for Toronto, with a 7-3 record and a 3.61 ERA, ranking him 85th among MLB starters. Bassitt’s projections indicate he will pitch about 5.8 innings and allow approximately 2.9 earned runs, making him a reliable option for the Blue Jays.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 8th in MLB in overall offense, showcasing their power with the 10th highest home run tally. In contrast, the Blue Jays are 12th in overall offense, but their .272 batting average ranks 4th, demonstrating their ability to consistently get on base. This matchup presents an intriguing battle as Boston seeks to capitalize on its strong offensive metrics against a Blue Jays team that has been performing well overall. With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, bettors can expect an action-packed game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Chris Bassitt’s 90.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.9-mph decline from last year’s 92.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Andres Gimenez’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 86.3-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 81.2-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Bo Bichette has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Lucas Giolito – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Because groundball batters hold a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Lucas Giolito and his 36.8% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult spot in today’s game matching up with 2 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Toronto’s #2-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Wilyer Abreu, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Today’s version of the Red Sox projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .308 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .321 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+6.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 52 games (+13.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+100/-130)
  Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.25 Units / 38% ROI)