Dive Into Player Props Analysis for Rays vs Orioles – Saturday June 28, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles will host the Tampa Bay Rays in the second game of their series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 28, 2025. After a remarkable offensive display, the Orioles pulled off a stunning 22-8 victory over the Rays yesterday, marking a rare highlight in their challenging season. Despite that win, the Orioles’ record sits at 35-46, placing them under considerable pressure amid a disappointing campaign. Conversely, the Rays are thriving, boasting a record of 46-36 and positioning themselves as contenders in the American League East.

Projected starters Zach Eflin and Zack Littell present an intriguing matchup. Eflin, who ranks as the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, is having a rough year with a 5.46 ERA. However, his 4.23 xFIP indicates he might be due for a rebound, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky thus far. Meanwhile, Littell, while holding a decent 3.78 ERA, has a 4.56 xERA that points to good fortune rather than skill, leaving open the possibility that he might regress. Both pitchers are right-handed and projected to pitch around five innings, making their performances critical to their teams’ chances.

Offensively, the Rays come in with the 9th best offense in MLB, highlighted by a stellar 2nd place team batting average. In contrast, the Orioles’ offense ranks 19th overall and 23rd in batting average, indicating a struggle to produce runs consistently. Betting markets have set the Game Total at 9.5 runs, which reflects expectations of a high-scoring affair, with both teams given an implied team total of 4.75 runs. With the stakes high and both teams eyeing crucial wins, the matchup promises to be a compelling one for fans and bettors alike.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Zack Littell is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #5 HR venue in the majors in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Josh Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (66% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Zach Eflin’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (69.9% compared to 62.7% last season) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Gunnar Henderson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.7-mph to 101.1-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colton Cowser, Ramon Laureano, Gary Sanchez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 71 games (+11.23 Units / 14% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.0 (-145)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 31 away games (+13.75 Units / 32% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 32% ROI)