See the Weather Forecast for Mariners vs Rangers – Saturday, June 28th, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers host the Seattle Mariners on June 28, 2025, in an intriguing American League West matchup. Entering this game, the Rangers sit at 40-42, having shown inconsistency throughout the season. In contrast, the Mariners have outperformed expectations with a record of 42-39. The two teams faced off just yesterday, with the Mariners claiming a solid victory, further complicating the Rangers’ efforts to salvage the series.

On the mound, Texas is set to start Kumar Rocker, who has struggled this season with a 3-4 record and a concerning 6.68 ERA. Although his xFIP of 3.83 projects better performance, Rocker’s average pitch length of 4.9 innings isn’t ideal, especially against a strong offense like Seattle’s. Meanwhile, Bryan Woo, projected to start for the Mariners, has been exceptional, boasting a 7-4 record and a stellar 3.12 ERA, making him the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics.

The Rangers’ offense ranks a dismal 27th in MLB, struggling to generate consistent runs, particularly against quality pitching. Their low walk rate, ranking 5th least in MLB, could play into Woo’s hands, as he is a low-walk pitcher himself. Conversely, the Mariners’ offense ranks 9th, demonstrating their ability to get on base and drive in runs, evidenced by their 4.27 implied team total for this matchup.

Despite the Rangers being underdogs with a moneyline of +120, their potential to upset lies in Rocker’s ability to outperform his projections and the Mariners’ slight vulnerability against low-walk offenses. However, the task will be daunting against a team that has shown they can capitalize on pitching mistakes. As the series continues, all eyes will be on how these two teams can turn their recent performances into favorable outcomes.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Bryan Woo has tallied 19.1 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 98th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Ben Williamson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Benjamin Williamson is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Texas (#1-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Texas Rangers Insights

• Kumar Rocker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Kumar Rocker will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Josh Smith has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 5.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Texas Rangers has been 114.7 mph this year, making them the #26 squad in MLB by this stat.
  Explain: If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he’s never hit the ball hard, it’s a sign of a lack of power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 68 games (+20.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 60 games (+9.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Corey Seager has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 23% ROI)