Discover the Yankees vs Reds Game Time – June 25, 2025

New York Yankees

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Cincinnati Reds

On June 25, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the New York Yankees in the third game of their series at Great American Ball Park. Both teams enter this matchup with solid records, with the Yankees at 45-34, enjoying a good season, while the Reds are at 42-38, having an above-average year. Notably, the Reds won their last game against the Yankees by a close score of 5-4, while the Yankees are looking to bounce back after that loss.

Cincinnati’s Brady Singer is projected to take the mound, bringing a 7-5 record and a 4.13 ERA this season. While he ranks as the 154th best starting pitcher in MLB, his recent performance shows promise—he pitched 6 innings with just 1 earned run and 7 strikeouts in his last start. However, his 4.68 xERA suggests he may not sustain this level of success. Singer’s high-walk rate could be problematic against a Yankees offense that is patient and leads the league in walks.

Max Fried, the Yankees’ starter, boasts a stellar 9-2 record and an impressive 2.05 ERA, making him the 5th best pitcher in MLB. Fried’s last outing saw him give up 3 earned runs in 6 innings, but he remains a dominant force on the mound.

Offensively, the Yankees rank 2nd in MLB, showcasing their power with 120 home runs this season. In contrast, the Reds’ offense is ranked 12th, suggesting a notable gap in run production. Despite being the underdog with a moneyline of +175 and an implied team total of 3.96 runs, the Reds could find some momentum from their recent victory. As betting lines reflect, the Yankees are favored at -205, with an implied team total of 5.54 runs. The Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for a potentially high-scoring contest.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-205)
  Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Austin Wells – Over/Under Total Bases
  Austin Wells is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Cincinnati (#1-worst of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+180)
  Brady Singer is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in the majors — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Santiago Espinal is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 75 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 62 games (+18.12 Units / 26% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.60 Units / 26% ROI)