Cardinals vs White Sox Best Bets and Expert Picks – Tuesday June 17, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Chicago White Sox

On June 17, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Guaranteed Rate Field for the first game of their Interleague matchup. Both teams are coming off tough losses, with the White Sox falling 2-1 to the Seattle Mariners and the Cardinals losing 3-2 to the San Francisco Giants. The White Sox, sitting at 23-49 this season, have struggled significantly and rank 30th in MLB in offensive production. In contrast, the Cardinals are hovering around .500 with a 37-35 record, indicating an average season.

Shane Smith is projected to take the mound for the White Sox. While he holds a respectable ERA of 2.37, advanced metrics suggest he might have been a bit fortunate so far, as his xFIP sits at 4.09. Smith’s performance has been inconsistent, and he projects to pitch only 4.9 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs with a high average of 5.1 hits.

Matthew Liberatore, starting for the Cardinals, has had a rough go recently, allowing 5 earned runs in his last outing. However, he boasts a solid ERA of 3.93 and has a favorable FIP of 3.15, which suggests he may improve moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings, though his strikeout numbers are below average.

The Cardinals’ offense ranks 12th overall, bolstered by a strong batting average of .275, while the White Sox’s offense has struggled to keep pace. Betting lines favor the Cardinals with a moneyline of -135, indicating a 55% implied win probability. The projections give them an average implied team total of 4.76 runs, compared to the White Sox’s 4.24 runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Matthew Liberatore will concede an average of 1.8 singles in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Considering the 1.94 disparity between Shane Smith’s 2.37 ERA and his 4.31 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league this year and should see worse results going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Luis Robert Jr. has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 98.5-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago White Sox have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Luis Robert Jr., Austin Slater).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 34 games at home (+10.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 away games (+7.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+510/-900)
  Nolan Arenado has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 80% ROI)