Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-170
On June 16, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Boston Red Sox at T-Mobile Park in a matchup of teams vying for a competitive edge in an average season. The Mariners currently sit at 36-34, while the Red Sox are slightly ahead at 37-36. This game marks the first in a series that could have implications for both teams as they look to gain momentum.
Logan Gilbert is projected to take the mound for the Mariners. He has been impressive this season with a 2.37 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 1-1 over six starts. His 37.6% strikeout rate indicates that he can dominate opposing hitters, especially against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts. Gilbert’s elite projection of allowing just 1.9 earned runs on average today further strengthens Seattle’s chances. In contrast, Lucas Giolito, who has struggled with a 5.45 ERA for Boston, will start for the Red Sox. Despite his 2-1 record, his projections show he may allow around 2.7 earned runs today, adding to the challenges facing Boston’s offense.
The Mariners’ offense ranks 11th overall, bolstered by their 7th ranking in home runs. Meanwhile, the Red Sox boast a slightly better overall ranking of 6th, featuring a strong batting average at 7th. However, they’ll be looking to overcome a Mariners bullpen that has been rated 22nd.
Given Logan Gilbert’s strong performance and the Mariners’ favorable matchup against a struggling Giolito, Seattle is positioned to capitalize on this game, making them the clear favorites despite the betting odds suggesting otherwise.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Lucas Giolito – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Lucas Giolito has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed hitters today.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Kristian Campbell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Batters such as Kristian Campbell with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Logan Gilbert who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Logan Gilbert’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.8 mph this year (94.8 mph) below where it was last season (96.6 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Jorge Polanco has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 61 games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-105)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 away games (+11.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1800)J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+11.00 Units / 138% ROI)