
San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers
(-115/-105)-175
On June 14, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium in a pivotal National League West matchup. Both teams have identical records of 41-29, illustrating their competitive nature this season. The Dodgers are riding a strong performance, but they faced off against the Giants yesterday and came away with a decisive victory, which should bolster their confidence heading into this game.
Clayton Kershaw is expected to take the mound for the Dodgers. While he has only started five games this year with a 1-0 record and an ERA of 4.35, he remains a force to be reckoned with. The projections suggest he may struggle with control, as he carries a high walk rate into this matchup against a Giants offense that excels in drawing walks, ranking 6th in MLB. On the other side, Landen Roupp, projected to start for San Francisco, has a more favorable ERA of 3.29 but has been fortunate this season, as his xFIP indicates potential regression.
The Dodgers’ offense has been dominant, ranking 2nd in MLB and boasting the best team batting average. Their ability to hit for power is a significant advantage, having belted 106 home runs this season, placing them 2nd in that category. In contrast, the Giants’ offense has struggled, ranking 22nd in MLB and 25th in batting average, which could make it difficult for them to keep pace.
With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs expected and the Dodgers being a significant betting favorite at a moneyline of -175, this game presents an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the Dodgers’ strengths against the Giants’ weaknesses. As Kershaw looks to shake off recent control issues, the matchup leans heavily in favor of the Dodgers, especially given their elite offense against a struggling Giants lineup.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Landen Roupp – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Landen Roupp was on point in his previous outing and posted 8 strikeouts.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Extreme flyball hitters like Wilmer Flores generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Clayton Kershaw.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- San Francisco Giants – 2H MoneylineThe San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)Clayton Kershaw is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #2 HR venue among all major league stadiums — today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Max Muncy has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 13.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.1% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+9.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+145/-190)Freddie Freeman has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI)