San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)-155
As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face off against the San Diego Padres on June 8, 2025, at American Family Field, both teams find themselves in close contention within the standings. The Brewers, currently at 35-30, look to maintain their above-average season, while the Padres, sitting at 36-27, are enjoying a solid campaign. This game marks the third in a critical series, following a tightly contested matchup yesterday where the Brewers edged out the Padres with a 4-3 victory.
On the mound for the Brewers, Aaron Civale is projected to start. While his advanced stats rank him as one of the lower-tier pitchers in MLB, he has shown signs of potential improvement, with a 4.61 SIERA suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky this year. Civale is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Padres offense that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone in MLB, which could pose a challenge for him. Additionally, he is a high-flyball pitcher, which might be beneficial against a Padres lineup that has struggled with power this season.
Opposing Civale will be Ryan Bergert for the Padres, who boasts an impressive 2.00 ERA this season. However, his advanced metrics indicate he may be due for a regression, as his xFIP sits at 5.58. Bergert’s ability to limit runs will be crucial for San Diego, particularly against a Brewers offense that ranks 23rd in the league.
The betting odds favor the Brewers, giving them a moneyline of -155. Based on projections, they are expected to score around 4.39 runs, reflecting their potential to capitalize on yesterday’s win momentum. As both teams vie for crucial wins, this matchup promises to be a compelling battle of pitching and offensive strategy.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Ryan Bergert – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Given that flyball batters hold a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Ryan Bergert and his 35.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot in this game facing 3 opposing GB bats.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Tyler Wade – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Extreme groundball bats like Tyler Wade tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Aaron Civale.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the San Diego Padres with a 19.5% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)In the last two weeks, Brice Turang’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.4% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Milwaukee Brewers batters as a unit place 30th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 6.4% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+9.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- William Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+125/-160)William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+6.80 Units / 31% ROI)