Current Player Trends for Phillies vs Pirates – Friday June 06, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies at PNC Park on June 6, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back from tough losses. The Pirates fell to the Phillies by a score of 8-2 in their last outing, while the Phillies were dealt a heavy defeat, losing 9-1. With both teams struggling, the stakes are high in this first game of the series.

Currently, the Pirates sit at 23-40, struggling significantly this season, ranking 27th in offense and 29th in home runs. However, they do boast a surprising strength in their base-running, ranking 4th in MLB in stolen bases. Bailey Falter, projected to start for the Pirates, has had a mixed season. Although he has a solid ERA of 3.14, his xFIP of 4.61 suggests he may not maintain that level of performance. Falter’s last start was promising, as he pitched 6 innings with no earned runs, but he projects to allow an average of 3.0 earned runs today.

On the other side, the Phillies are faring much better at 37-25, ranking 6th in MLB offensively. Their best hitter has been a standout, boasting an OPS of .946. Joe Ross, projected to start for Philadelphia, has had his struggles this season as well, with an ERA of 4.34 and a concerning xERA of 5.12. He was hit hard in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs over 5 innings, which raises questions about his effectiveness against a Pirates lineup that has shown vulnerability to strikeouts.

With a high Game Total set at 9.0 runs, the betting markets lean slightly towards the Phillies, who have a moneyline of -135. However, given the Pirates’ potential to surprise, this matchup could be more competitive than the records suggest. As both teams look to gain momentum, this game will be crucial in setting the tone for the series ahead.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Joe Ross – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Joe Ross in the 21st percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies bats collectively rank among the elite in baseball this year (8th-) when it comes to their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Among all starting pitchers, Bailey Falter’s fastball spin rate of 2090 rpm is in the 4th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Oneil Cruz has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 97.2-mph to 100.2-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Bryan Reynolds has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+7.59 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2700)
  Jared Triolo has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)