Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
(-110/-110)-170
On June 4, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Truist Park for the second game of their series. The Braves are currently struggling with a 27-32 record, while the Diamondbacks sit slightly better at 29-31. Both teams are having below-average seasons, but the Braves’ home-field advantage could play a role in this matchup.
In their last game on June 3, the Braves suffered a disappointing 8-3 loss, while the Diamondbacks celebrated victory with the same scoreline. Chris Sale, the projected starter for the Braves, is a high-strikeout pitcher with an impressive 30.1 K% this season. However, he faces a Diamondbacks lineup that has been effective at limiting strikeouts, ranking as the 4th least strikeout-prone offense in MLB. This matchup could neutralize Sale’s strengths.
Sale boasts a strong 3.06 ERA and is ranked 10th among starting pitchers, indicating his elite status. While he projects to pitch an average of 5.9 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, his tendency to give up fly balls—37% this season—could be troubling against a powerful Diamondbacks offense that has hit 84 home runs, ranking 4th in MLB.
Merrill Kelly, starting for Arizona, holds a 3.78 ERA and is ranked 70th among pitchers, which is above average. His performance has been solid, though he struggled in his last start, allowing 4 earned runs over 5 innings. The projections suggest he will pitch an average of 5.5 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs.
The Braves’ offense ranks 16th overall and has shown signs of life recently, with their best hitter enjoying a solid week, batting .304. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks’ offense ranks 4th overall, making this matchup a battle between a struggling pitching staff and a potent lineup. With Atlanta favored at -170, they have an implied total of 4.49 runs, reflecting confidence in their ability to bounce back and capitalize on their home advantage.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Merrill Kelly has utilized his cut-fastball 7% less often this season (18.2%) than he did last season (25.2%).Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Eugenio Suarez has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph dropping to 80.8-mph over the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Chris Sale – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Over his previous 3 games started, Chris Sale has seen a significant decline in his fastball velocity: from 94.3 mph over the whole season to 92.6 mph recently.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Extreme flyball bats like Ozzie Albies generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Merrill Kelly.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Atlanta’s 89.9-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the league: #7 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+12.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-105)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.80 Units / 51% ROI)