Game Breakdown: Braves vs Phillies Team Stats and Insights – May 29, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Philadelphia Phillies

On May 29, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park for the second game of a double-header. The Phillies enter this matchup with a strong 36-19 record, showcasing their prowess this season, while the Braves sit at 25-29, struggling to find their footing. Notably, in their last outing on May 27, the Phillies secured a shutout victory over the Braves, winning 2-0, further emphasizing their current form.

Zack Wheeler, projected to start for the Phillies, is enjoying an elite season, ranking as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. He holds a solid 6-1 record and a remarkable 2.42 ERA. Wheeler’s recent performance was impressive, as he pitched 7 innings with no earned runs and 8 strikeouts in his last start. Conversely, Chris Sale, slated to take the mound for the Braves, has had a decent season but has struggled with a 2-3 record and a 3.36 ERA. Although Sale ranks 11th among MLB starters, his strikeout ability (29.8 K%) may be challenged against a Phillies offense that ranks as the 5th best overall and has the 6th fewest strikeouts.

The projections indicate that the Phillies will likely score around 3.66 runs, which is modest given their offensive capabilities. However, given the Braves’ average lineup, which ranks 15th overall, they may find it difficult to capitalize on Wheeler’s vulnerabilities. While the Braves have a slight edge in the current moneyline at -120, the Phillies’ strong recent form and Wheeler’s exceptional pitching could give them the upper hand in this tightly-contested matchup.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Because of his large platoon split, Chris Sale has a tough challenge matching up with 7 hitters in the projected lineup who bat from the opposite side today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Ozzie Albies is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves hitters jointly have been among the best in the league this year (6th-) in regard to their 90.1-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Bryson Stott’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.7-mph EV last season has fallen off to 86.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 17th-best batter in MLB.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 games (+8.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 58% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)