Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Guardians vs Tigers – May 22, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

@

Detroit Tigers

On May 22, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Cleveland Guardians at Comerica Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Tigers come into the matchup with a strong 33-17 record, showcasing their impressive form this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians sit at 26-22, indicating they are having an above-average season, but they will need to elevate their play to compete with the Tigers’ potent lineup.

The Tigers recently enjoyed a solid performance, and with Jack Flaherty projected to start, they have a pitcher ranked 61st in MLB according to advanced stats, suggesting he is above average despite a 2-5 record and a 4.44 ERA this year. Flaherty has started 9 games and is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings today while allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs. However, he does face a Guardians offense that ranks 21st in the league, giving him an opportunity to capitalize on his high strikeout rate against a low-strikeout team.

Tanner Bibee, the Guardians’ projected starter, comes in with a 3-4 record and a slightly better ERA of 4.06. His performance has been solid, but the projections suggest he may be due for a downturn. Bibee will also need to navigate the Tigers’ 6th-ranked offense, which excels in batting average and home runs.

With the Tigers’ bullpen ranked 2nd and the Guardians’ bullpen at 9th, the late innings could prove crucial. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup. Bettors may want to consider the Tigers’ strong home advantage and their offensive firepower as they look to capitalize on the Guardians’ struggles.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Tanner Bibee’s curveball utilization has dropped by 5% from last season to this one (6.9% to 1.9%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme flyball bats like Jose Ramirez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Flaherty.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Jack Flaherty’s 92.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1-mph fall off from last year’s 93.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Colt Keith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Detroit Tigers have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Dillon Dingler).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-130)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games (+13.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 43 games (+4.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• Dillon Dingler – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)
  Dillon Dingler has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+5.70 Units / 111% ROI)