Player Props for Mets vs Red Sox – Tuesday May 20, 2025

New York Mets

@

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox will host the New York Mets at Fenway Park on May 20, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Red Sox, currently sitting at 4th place in the AL East with a record of 24-25, are looking to build on their recent win against the Mets, where they triumphed 3-1 just a day prior. On the other hand, the Mets are in a solid position at 2nd place in the NL East with a record of 29-19, showcasing their strong form this season.

Walker Buehler is projected to take the mound for the Red Sox. Despite being ranked as the 146th best starting pitcher in MLB, his 4-1 record indicates he has found some success this year. However, his average ERA of 4.28 and projections suggest he may struggle today, as he is expected to pitch around 4.7 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs. In contrast, the Mets will counter with Clay Holmes, who boasts a much stronger 3.14 ERA and is ranked 30th among MLB starters. Holmes, with a 5-2 record, is projected to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs as well, but he has shown the ability to strike out more batters on average.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 8th in MLB, bolstered by their best hitter’s impressive .955 OPS, while the Mets rank 9th but have a lower batting average and home run count. While the Red Sox’s bullpen sits at 11th in the Power Rankings, the Mets’ bullpen struggles at 29th, which could be a pivotal factor in this matchup.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Red Sox’s moneyline at +110, betting markets suggest a close contest. The projections favor the Red Sox to outperform their implied total of 4.05 runs, making them a compelling option for bettors looking for value in this matchup.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Clay Holmes turned in a great performance in his previous outing and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  In the last week, Francisco Lindor’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-140)
  The New York Mets projected lineup projects as the 2nd-best of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Walker Buehler to throw 80 pitches today (10th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Trevor Story has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph dropping to 82.4-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Boston’s 91-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the league: #1 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.20 Units / 61% ROI)
• David Hamilton – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-180)
  David Hamilton has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.65 Units / 83% ROI)