Game Forecast: Twins vs Brewers Match Preview – 5/18/25

Minnesota Twins

@

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Minnesota Twins in an intriguing interleague matchup on May 18, 2025, at American Family Field. Following a one-sided affair yesterday where the Brewers were shut out by the Twins, 7-0, both teams enter this game with contrasting narratives. The Brewers, currently sitting at 21-25, are having a below-average season, while the Twins boast a solid 26-20 record, positioning themselves well in the standings.

Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for the Brewers. With an impressive ERA of 2.66, he ranks as the 33rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is indeed a quality arm. However, his 3.87 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season, and he will need to be cautious against a Twins lineup that has shown average offensive capabilities, ranking 17th overall in MLB.

Zebby Matthews will start for the Twins, and while he holds the 80th spot in the starting pitcher rankings, his recent performances have raised concerns. In his last outing on September 28, 2024, he allowed six earned runs over just three innings, which could indicate vulnerability against a Brewers offense that, despite its struggles, ranks first in stolen bases.

The Brewers are favored with a moneyline of -150, reflecting a projected team total of 4.08 runs. Given their recent offensive woes, this may seem optimistic. However, with Peralta on the mound, Milwaukee could find a way to capitalize on any mistakes from Matthews. The low Game Total of 7.5 runs suggests a tight contest, but the Brewers’ potential for a bounce-back performance cannot be discounted.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Because groundball hitters have a big advantage over flyball pitchers, Zebby Matthews and his 34.2% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in today’s outing matching up with 4 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Vazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Christian Vazquez has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Freddy Peralta has gone to his slider 15.2% less often this season (6.4%) than he did last year (21.6%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Extreme flyball batters like Christian Yelich tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Zebby Matthews.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+110/-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+9.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 21 games (+15.65 Units / 59% ROI)
• Christian Vazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)
  Christian Vazquez has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 away games (+7.85 Units / 108% ROI)