Boxscore for Twins vs Brewers – 5/17/25

Minnesota Twins

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Minnesota Twins for the second game of their interleague series on May 17, 2025. The Brewers, currently sitting at 21-24, are struggling and coming off a shutout loss to the Twins, who improved to 25-20 with their recent 3-0 victory. With both teams looking to gain momentum, today’s matchup serves as a critical moment for the Brewers to turn their fortunes around.

On the mound for the Brewers is Tobias Myers, projected to pitch 5.2 innings with an average of 2.4 earned runs allowed. While his ERA of 3.86 indicates decent performance, a concerning 5.55 xFIP suggests he may have been benefitting from some luck this season. His high walk rate of 13.3% could be exploited by the Twins’ low-walk offense, potentially giving Myers an edge against a lineup that struggles to capitalize on pitchers’ mistakes.

Pablo Lopez, the Twins’ starter, offers a stark contrast. Ranked 25th among starting pitchers in the league, he boasts a solid 2.77 ERA and has a strong chance of silencing the Brewers’ offense, which ranks 24th overall and struggles in both batting average and home runs. Both teams’ recent performances indicate a need for improvement, but the projections favor Lopez, who is expected to pitch 5.8 innings and allow only 2.3 earned runs.

Given the low game total of 7.5 runs and the proximity in the moneyline, bettors should consider the Twins as the slightly safer option today, especially with Milwaukee’s offensive inconsistencies this season. With the stakes high and a chance to regain ground in the standings, both teams will be looking to seize this opportunity.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Considering the 0.45 disparity between Pablo Lopez’s 9.92 K/9 and his 9.48 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year in terms of strikeouts and figures to see negative regression in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• DaShawn Keirsey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Extreme flyball bats like DaShawn Keirsey Jr. generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tobias Myers.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Kody Clemens pulls many of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Tobias Myers – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Tobias Myers’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (91.8 mph) below where it was last year (93 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Jackson Chourio is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.40 Units / 39% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 30 games (+13.85 Units / 36% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-205)
  Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.80 Units / 19% ROI)