
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Arizona Diamondbacks
-210O/U: 8.5
(-105/-115)+180
(-105/-115)+180
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 18.0 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Shohei Ohtani has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)Will Smith is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Zac Gallen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+145/-190)Zac Gallen’s four-seam fastball rate has decreased by 6.6% from last season to this one (45.4% to 38.8%) .Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Geraldo Perdomo has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.5-mph dropping to 80.1-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+180)The 3rd-weakest projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Run Line -1.5 (-125)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 50 away games (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+13.15 Units / 48% ROI)
