
Colorado Rockies
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Los Angeles Angels
+120O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-140
(-120/+100)-140
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)With 7 bats who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Michael Lorenzen should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)Edouard Julien is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Colorado Rockies – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen projects as the worst out of all the teams in MLB.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Walbert Urena – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Walbert Urena’s 96.9-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 95th percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Donovan Walton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Donovan Walton has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Jorge Soler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Jorge Soler pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+5.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 35 games (+3.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Jake McCarthy has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+6.60 Units / 23% ROI)
