Guardians vs Yankees Preview and Prediction - Wednesday June 3rd, 2026

+115O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)-135

Gavin Williams – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
Among all starting pitchers, Gavin Williams’s fastball velocity of 95.9 mph grades out in the 82nd percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Travis Bazzana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
Travis Bazzana has been lucky this year, posting a .366 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .306 — a .060 difference.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
Gerrit Cole projects to average 4.6 hits in this outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
In the past two weeks, Paul Goldschmidt’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.6% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 45 games at home (+2.90 Units / 6% ROI)
Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+115)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 away games (+8.75 Units / 88% ROI)
Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+180/-235)
Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+9.95 Units / 66% ROI)

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