Twins vs Brewers Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Friday May 16, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Milwaukee Brewers

On May 16, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Minnesota Twins at American Family Field in what marks the first game of their interleague matchup. Currently, the Brewers sit at 21-23, struggling through a below-average season, while the Twins boast a better record at 24-20, indicating an above-average performance thus far.

Chad Patrick is set to take the mound for Milwaukee. Despite his 3.19 ERA, which appears impressive, the advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate that Patrick is the 185th best starting pitcher in MLB, signifying that he has been fortunate and may not sustain this level of performance. His projected stats for today suggest he will pitch about 5.3 innings while allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs. However, with a projected average of 5.0 hits allowed, he faces a challenge against Minnesota’s offense, ranked 21st in MLB.

On the flip side, Joe Ryan of the Twins is having a standout season, ranking 18th among MLB starting pitchers. His excellent 2.74 ERA, combined with a solid projection of 5.6 innings pitched and 2.4 earned runs allowed, puts him in a favorable position against a struggling Brewers lineup. The projections suggest that Ryan could exploit the Brewers’ weaknesses, especially considering they rank 25th in both team batting average and home runs.

The Game Total is set low at 7.5 runs, indicating expectations of a tight contest. Given the Brewers’ below-average offense and Ryan’s strong performance, betting markets reflect a close matchup, with the Twins currently favored at -115 on the moneyline. Ultimately, if Milwaukee is to turn their season around, they will need to capitalize on what could be a challenging outing for Patrick against a determined Twins squad.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Joe Ryan’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.7 mph this season (92.3 mph) below where it was last year (94 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Willi Castro’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 90.6-mph average last season has decreased to 86.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In today’s game, Kody Clemens is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.7% rate (86th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Chad Patrick has a mean projection of 1.2 walks in today’s game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Hitters such as Christian Yelich with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Joe Ryan who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Collectively, Milwaukee Brewers hitters have struggled in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), rating worst in MLB.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+8.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+11.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+13.10 Units / 87% ROI)