Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels
(-115/-105)+150
The Los Angeles Angels will host the Detroit Tigers on May 4, 2025, in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup. The Angels, struggling this season with a 13-19 record, find themselves facing a Tigers team that has been performing exceptionally well at 21-13. This game marks the fourth in the series between these two clubs, with the Angels needing a win to regain some momentum.
In their last outing, the Tigers showcased their offensive prowess, winning decisively and continuing their strong run. The Angels, on the other hand, are in dire need of a turnaround, especially with their offense ranking a dismal 26th in MLB. While the Angels boast a solid power ranking with the 5th most home runs, their overall batting average is the 29th worst, indicating a stark inconsistency.
Jack Kochanowicz is projected to take the mound for the Angels. Despite being ranked 210th among MLB starters, he has been a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Tigers offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts. This matchup could play to Kochanowicz’s advantage, as he relies on ground balls (48% GB rate) to mitigate damage against a powerful lineup that has already hit 44 home runs this season. However, his 1-4 record and 5.29 ERA suggest he may struggle.
Reese Olson, the Tigers’ starter, has been impressive with a 3.55 ERA and a ranking of 33rd among pitchers. Olson, also a ground-ball pitcher (53% GB rate), faces an Angels lineup that has shown power but is unable to consistently put the bat on the ball. The projections indicate Olson’s typical performance could lead to a solid outing against a low-walk Angels offense.
With the game total set at 8.5 runs, it’s clear that oddsmakers expect a competitive game. The Tigers come in as heavy favorites, and while the Angels’ bullpen is ranked 11th in MLB, the Tigers’ elite bullpen at 1st could be the deciding factor in a tight contest.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Reese Olson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Reese Olson has used his sinker 10.8% more often this year (31%) than he did last season (20.2%).Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Los Angeles’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Spencer Torkelson, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Tomas Nido – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tomas Nido in the 2nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Over his last 3 starts, Jack Kochanowicz has experienced a big jump in his fastball spin rate: from 2117 rpm over the whole season to 2183 rpm in recent games.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Nolan Schanuel is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Logan O’Hoppe, Kyren Paris, Jorge Soler, Jo Adell).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.23 Units / 41% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games (+9.03 Units / 24% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)Gleyber Torres has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+12.50 Units / 139% ROI)